ŠĻą”±į>ž’ 79ž’’’0123456’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’ģ„Įq` šæšbjbjqPqP Ć"::%¢øx’’’’’’¤` ` ` ` r &Ŗ ¶ 4ź r$r$r$hŚ$”n%<ź ם²¶*¶*:š*š*š*$,$,$,üœžœžœžœžœžœžœ$‰Ÿhń”f"9` E$,$,E "E"` ` š*š*4[4D_D_D_*EB ` š*` š*üœD_EüœD_D_gĢ` ` Lhš*Ŗ* šjƒmąÅr$lRVŠgphŒ4HםźgbW£ĀZW£4LhW£˜ Lh$$,€¤4D_¶:Ü’?r$,$,$,""Ś^j$,$,$,םEEEEź ź ź döN$#ź ź ź Nź ź ź ` ` ` ` ` ` ’’’’ American Psychologist, in press Child Care Effect Sizes for the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development National Institute of Child Heath and Human Development Early Child Care Research Network Running Head: Child Care Effect Sizes: NICHD SECCYD Acknowledgements: We wish to express our appreciation to the study coordinators at each site who supervised the data collection, to the research assistants who collected the data, and especially to the families and child care providers who welcomed us into their homes and workplaces with good grace, and cooperated willingly with our repeated requests for information. This study is directed by a Steering Committee and supported by NICHD through a cooperative agreement (U10), which calls for scientific collaboration between the grantees and the NICHD staff. However, the contents do not necessarily represent the positions or policies of the NICHD, and endorsement by the federal government should not be assumed. Participating investigators, listed in alphabetical order, are: Jay Belsky, Birkbeck University of London; Cathryn L. Booth, University of Washington; Robert Bradley, University of Arkansas, Little Rock; Celia A. Brownell, University of Pittsburgh; Margaret Burchinal, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; Susan B. Campbell, University of Pittsburgh; K. Alison Clarke-Stewart, University of California, Irvine; Martha Cox, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; Sarah L. Friedman, NICHD, Bethesda, Maryland; Aletha Huston, University of Texas, Austin;; Jean F. Kelly, University of Washington; Bonnie Knoke, Research Triangle Institute; Kathleen McCartney, Harvard University; Marion O'Brien, University of Kansas; Margaret Tresch Owen, University of Texas, Dallas; Robert Pianta, University of Virginia; Susan Spieker, University of Washington; Deborah Lowe Vandell, University of Wisconsin, Madison; Marsha Weinraub, Temple University Correspondence concerning the review of this article should be addressed to Peg Burchinal (burchinal@unc.edu), FPG Child Development Institute, CB #8185, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-8185 burchinal@unc.edu Abstract This report provides a summary of child care findings from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development as child care effect sizes for exclusive maternal care and, if in child care, for type, quality, and quantity. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ (n=1261) were recruited at birth and assessed at 15, 24, 36, and 54 months. Whether the child was in care did not predict child outcomes, but multiple features of child care experience were modestly to moderately predictive. Higher quality child care was significantly related to more advanced cognitive, language, and pre-academic outcomes at every age and better socio-emotional and peer outcomes at some ages. More hours of child care predicted more behavior problems and conflict according to the child care provider. More time in center care was related to both higher cognitive and language scores and more problem and fewer prosocial behaviors according to care providers. The child care effect sizes are discussed from three different perspectives: (1) absolute effect sizes that reflect established guidelines, (2) relative effect sizes, comparing child care to parenting effect sizes; and (3) the possible individual and collective implications based on the large number of children experiencing child care. Child Care Effect Sizes: The NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development During the past 25 years a dramatic change has taken place in the early experiences of the youngest children in the United States. The proportion of children who experience regular child care prior to school entry has increased from under 25% to over 80%, with large numbers initiating such care in their first year or two of life (West, Denton, & Germino-Hausken, 2000). The dramatic increase in the number of infants and preschoolers receiving nonmaternal care has generated questions about the effects of early child care experiences on children’s development (Booth, 1992; Fox and Fein, 1990). In response to the need for data to address these issues, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) initiated a large-scale prospective longitudinal study of the effects of early child care arrangements on children's development. This report documents the early childhood findings from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (NICHD SECCYD) in a uniform manner to address questions about whether there is sufficient evidence to have practical implications for parents, professionals, or policy makers The NICHD SECCYD is in a unique position to address these questions because the data consists of extensive family data as well as child care and child outcome data (NICHD Early Child Care Research Network, 2005). The study recruited over 1300 mothers soon after delivery, enrolled them and their babies when the infants were one month of age and followed them prospectively, collecting frequent measurement of child outcomes, family characteristics and parenting, and child care quality, quantity and type. Analyses were designed to address questions of family selection, and interpretation of findings considered questions regarding whether the findings were meaningful. Family selection effects must be addressed in observational studies of child care experiences. Parents make child care decisions, and those decisions are related to family characteristics that have been linked to child outcomes. Specifically, children are more likely to experience center-based child care as well as higher-quality care if they are from more advantaged families, in which parents have more education and income, larger vocabularies, less authoritarian childrearing beliefs, and in which parents provide more stimulating home environments and more responsive interactions with their children, (NICHD ECCRN, 1997, 1998; McCartney, 1984; Pungello & Kurtz-Costes, 1999). In addition, children from impoverished families are more likely than the working poor or middle-class children to experience high-quality center-based care through publicly funded programs such as Head Start and pre-kindergarten programs (Lamb, 1998). Family ethnicity and family structure also are related to enrollment in and amount of child care (Capizzano, Adams, & Sorenstein, 2000; Ehrle, Tout, & Adams, 2000; Pungello & Kurtz-Costes, 1999). Psychological dimensions of the family environment, including maternal mental health (i.e., depression) and attitudes about work and parenting, are also associated with differing types and qualities of infant care (NICHD ECCRN, 1997) and child care (Burchinal & Nelson, 2000). Therefore, we measured family and child care extensively in the NICHD SECCYD to adjust for family selection factors in the examination of child care effects. The most widely accepted method for addressing this concern among psychologists involves including family characteristics shown to relate to both child care experiences and child outcomes as control variables in analyses. Although the exclusion of family selection factors clearly overestimates the true association between child care experiences and child outcomes, the inclusion of selection factors will underestimate the association to the extent that these family characteristics are impacted by child care experiences in ways that influence outcomes (Allison, 1990). For example, if parents learn to use more effective discipline methods from teachers in higher quality child care settings, then including parenting as a covariate could underestimate the degree to which child care quality is related to behavior problems. We attempt to balance this concern in this report by implementing both liberal and conservative methods for estimating the associations between child care experiences and developmental outcomes. Studies of child care must also address questions regarding the practical implications of observed associations. Some psychologists (Chin-Quee & Scarr, 1994; Deater-Deckard, Pinkerton, & Scarr, 1996) and economists (Blau, 1999) contend that observed associations between child care and children’s outcomes are too small to be of interest to policy makers. However, until recently there were few guidelines for evaluating the magnitude of observed associations. Only recently have investigators reported effect sizes as an index of the magnitude of the association between child care experiences and child outcomes (Wilkinson & APA Task Force on Statistical Inference, 1999). Effect sizes describe the direction and magnitude of the association between a predictor and an outcome variable. Effect sizes are estimated in standard units such that -1 indicates a strong negative association (e.g., a difference of one standard deviation in the means of two groups or a perfect negative correlation between the predictor and outcome variable), 0 indicates no association, 1 indicates a strong positive association. They are reported in standard units so they can be interpreted regardless of the scale of predictor and outcome variables. In our case, we are interested in describing the extent to which child care experiences are associated with child outcomes in early childhood. The child care effect sizes in previous studies vary from moderate to large: d = 1.0 in an experiment in which low-income African-American children were randomly assigned to either high quality child care from two months-of-age to entry to kindergarten or to a control group (Campbell, Pungello, Miller-Johnson, Burchinal, & Ramey, 2001); d = .75 for cognitive and language outcomes among predominantly low-income African-American children (Burchinal, Roberts, Riggins, Zeisel, Neebe, & Bryant , 2000); to d = .5 for vocabulary and d=-.4 for behavior problems in a large four site study of four-year-old children in center care (Peisner-Feinberg, Burchinal, Clifford, Culkin, Howes, Kagan & Yazejian, 2001). Such large variability in effect sizes is not surprising because the characteristics of the study also varied. Effect sizes in naturalistic studies are typically small because they are measured in the context of many other influences and are likely to be either overestimated when family selection factors are ignored and underestimated when they are entered as covariates (Cohen, 1988; McCall & Green, 2004). Comparisons of the child care effect sizes with other effects judged to be meaningful can be used as a gauge of the social significance in a manner that sidesteps concerns about over- or under-control because effect sizes for child care and the other effects are from the same analysis model (McCartney & Rosenthal, 2000). In this report, we compare the effect sizes for quantity, quality, and type of care with the effect sizes for a well-recognized predictor of developmental outcomes, parenting. Parenting is a major predictor of children’s cognitive and social development because of the centrality of the family in children’s early lives and because it includes possible genetic as well as environmental influences on the child (Collins, Maccoby, Steinberg, Hetherington, & Bornstein, 2000). We contrast the observed effect sizes for child care experiences with the effect size for parenting. Drawing general conclusions about the developmental consequences of child care have also been difficult because researchers have typically examined different dimensions of child care – quantity, quality, and type of setting – in isolation from the others (Belsky, 2001; Vandell, Gallagher & Dadisman, 2000). Using standard measures of child care quality, researchers have consistently found that child care quality is positively related to language, cognitive, and social development, even after they controlled for such family selection factors as socioeconomic status, maternal education, parenting, or family structure in other large multi-site studies: the Chicago Study (Clarke-Stewart, Gruber, & Fitzgerald, 1994); Child Care and Family Study (Kontos, Howes, Shim, & Galinsky, 1995); the Cost, Quality, and Outcomes Study (Peisner-Feinberg, & Burchinal, 1997; Peisner-Feinberg et al, 2001); and in smaller single-site studies (Burchinal, Roberts, Nabors, & Bryant ,1996; Burchinal, et.al., 2000; Dunn, 1993; McCartney, 1984; Phillips, et al., 1987; Schliecker, White & Jacobs, 1991). However, few of these studies considered the type or quantity of child care. Previous studies that examined the impact of quantity of care have typically reported significant associations between substantial amounts of nonmaternal care during infancy and poorer parent-child relationships (Belsky, 1999; Clark, Hyde, Essex, & Klein, 1997), elevated rates of insecure infant-parent attachments (Belsky & Rovine, 1988; Braungart-Rieker, Courtney, & Garwood, 1999), heightened behavior problems (Baydar & Brooks-Gunn, 1991; Park & Honig, 1991), and problematic peer relationships (Bates, Marvinney, Kelly, Dodge, Bennett, & Pettit, 1994; Hoffman & Youngblade, 1999; Vandell & Corasaniti, 1990). However, few if any of these studies included assessments of child care quality or type. Other studies examined type of care without attention to quality and quantity, reporting that center care is related to both better cognitive or language skills and more problem behaviors (Burchinal, Ramey, Reid, & Jaccardd, 1995; Hoffman, & Youngblade, 1999; Lally et al, 1988; Park & Honig, 1991). Goals of the Initiative and this Report The primary purpose of the NICHD SECCYD was to examine how variations in early care experiences were related to children’s social-emotional adjustment, cognitive and linguistic performance and health. Because families were recruited into the study at the time of the child’s birth, and not after being enrolled in some form of child care, the full range of care settings used by families in the U.S. is represented. Some children received entirely or predominantly maternal care. Those who received nonmaternal care could be cared for by their father while mother worked, by another relative, or by a nonrelative. Nonmaternal care could be in the child’s home, someone else’s home, or a child care center. Because this is a prospective, longitudinal study, the data are well suited for the evaluation of fundamental questions surrounding early child care: (1) Are developmental outcomes different for children who experience maternal care exclusively or who use child care? and (2) Are there differential effects of nonmaternal child care depending upon the quantity, quality, or type of that care? The aim of this report is to provide a concise summary of selected child care findings in a single document. In our previous work, variables included in regression models, both with respect to selection variables and predictor variables have varied by child outcome (NICHD ECCRN, 1998; 2000a; 2001a; 2002; 2003, 2005). We chose to focus on findings from early childhood so we can describe the association between child care experiences on outcomes while children are still experiencing child care. We have demonstrated that children who experienced higher quality child care showed higher levels of cognitive and language development at each assessment age during early childhood (NICHD ECCRN, 2000a, 2002) and more positive social and peer outcomes at 36 months (NICHD ECCRN, 1998; 2001a) than children in lower quality child care. We also found that children who attended child care centers tended to show higher levels of cognitive and language skills, but also more problem behaviors (NICHD ECCRN, 2002; in press). Finally, we reported that children who spent more hours in routine nonmaternal care were reported by their caregivers as exhibiting more behavior problems at 24 and 54 months (NICHD ECCRN, 1998, 2002, 2003). Models in those papers were different by design; they included the relevant covariates for specific outcomes. In contrast, our goal in this report is to describe the associations between quality, quantity, and type of care using a single model, and to compare observed effect sizes for these aspects of child care to that of a predictor believed to have developmental significance, namely parenting. Background of Overall Project Participants in the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development were recruited during the first 11 months of 1991, from hospitals located in or near Charlottesville, VA; Irvine, CA; Lawrence, KS; Little Rock, AR; Madison, WI; Morganton, NC; Philadelphia, PA; Pittsburgh, PA; Seattle, WA; and Boston, MA. Screening and enrollment were accomplished in three stages: a hospital screening at birth, a phone call 2 weeks later, and an interview when the infant was 1 month old (see NICHD ECCRN, 2005 for complete details). . The recruited families included 24% ethnic minority children, 10% mothers without a high school education, and 14% single mothers. Most of the 1364 recruited families participated in all data collection, although sample sizes were slightly smaller at 15 months (n=1245), 24 months (n=1202), 36 months (n=1210), and 54 months (n=1095). At each age, the excluded families were more likely (p<.05) to be headed by a single parent, African-American and have less income. Mother tended to have less education, more depressive symptoms, and lower parenting scores. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ experienced fewer hours per week of child care and were less likely to attend child care centers. The first analysis compared children with exclusive maternal care to children who experienced at least some child care on a variety of developmental outcomes, and included all children with outcome data at any age. The remaining analyses examined child care characteristics and included only children who had been observed in their child care setting. Project Assessment Plan The major face-to-face early childhood assessments occurred when children were 1, 6, 15, 24, 36, and 54 months of age. The families were visited at home at 1 month; children were observed at home and in child care at 6 months; and at 15, 24, 36, and 54 months home, child care, and laboratory visits were conducted. In addition, data were obtained between major assessments from telephone interviews every 3 months through 36 months and at 42, 46, and 50 months. Details about all data collection procedures are documented in Manuals of Operation of the study, which can be found at http://secc/rti.org. The primary cognitive, social, and peer outcomes from the 15, 24, 36, and 54 months assessments were examined if they were continuously measured. Important categorical outcomes such as infant-mother attachment were not included because our effect size indexes are not appropriate for categorical outcomes. The covariates were selected because they were child and family characteristics that had been shown to be related to most outcomes at most ages. Child care and parenting measures were the predictors of interest. Table 1 presents an overview of the home and family, child care, and child outcome constructs measured in the study along with the corresponding ages of assessment. Those measures are described below. Child and Family Characteristics. Basic demographic data, including child gender and maternal educational level, were obtained by maternal report at 1 month. Family income was reported by mothers at each major data collection point and converted to an income-to-needs ratio by dividing total family income by the poverty-level income for that family size based on federal guidelines issues by the US Census. For the purposes of this report, family income-to-needs ratios were averaged from the 6 month visit though the age at which a particular outcome of interest was measured. For example, in the case of 15-month outcomes, we averaged 6 and 15 month reports on family income; for 24-month outcomes, we averaged 6, 15, and 24 month income-to-needs data. A composite measure of maternal psychological adjustment was created by summing standardized scores for three scales of the NEO Personality Inventory (Costa & McCrae, 1986) obtained at 6 months along with the (reversed) average of maternal depressive symptomotology assessed at 6 months using the CES-D (Radloff, 1977). Parenting. Our measure of parenting was calculated from two sources: (a) mothers’ behavior during a videotaped interaction between mother and child under semi-structured, free play conditions at 6, 15, 24, 36, and 54 months (NICHD ECCRN 1998; 2002), and (b) the stimulation and responsiveness of family environment as assessed by the Home Observation for the Measurement of the Environment (HOME) (Caldwell & Bradley, 1984) at 6, 15, 36, and 54 months. A composite score of maternal sensitivity was created at each age of measurement from coding of the videotapes for sensitivity to child, positive and negative (reversed) regard, intrusiveness, respect for autonomy, and hostility (reversed). The HOME was coded live by home visitors. Scores from the videotaped interaction episodes and the HOME were standardized and averaged at each time of measurement to create the overall quality of the home environment variable. Again, these composites were averaged over time, so that the 6-15 month mean parenting score predicted 15 month outcomes, the 6, 15, and 24 month average predicted 24 month outcomes. Child Care. Child care information was collected through phone calls with the mother and observations of the child’s primary child care setting. Mothers were called every 3 months between the time the baby was 1 month and 36 months, and approximately every 4 months between 36 and 54 months. During the phone calls, mothers were asked to list the various places the child received care and the hours per week that the child spent in each arrangement. The total hours per week of regular nonmaternal care and whether the child attended a center was tallied for each phone call. The child’s primary child care setting was observed at all primary data collection ages. Our first question was whether children who were cared for exclusively by their mothers showed different developmental outcomes than children using child care. We categorized children as experiencing exclusive maternal care at a given age when mothers reported fewer than five hours of routine nonmaternal care per week in every phone call conducted between 1 month and that age. For example, exclusive maternal care at 15 months indicted that the child had received five hours per week or fewer of regular nonmaternal care across all settings during each of the phone calls at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 months of age. Our other questions included whether, among children using child care, differences in child outcomes were related to the type, quantity, and quality of care - all of which tended to be confounded. To avoid this confound, we examine all three simultaneously. Type was computed as the proportion of time the child experienced center care. Whether the mother reported that the child attended a child care center during each phone was tallied. From this, we computed the proportion of phone calls from the call at one month to the call at the age of assessment in which the child attended a child care center. For example, the child was coded as being in center care for 50% of the time at 15 months when the mother reported the child attended a center during three of the six phone contacts through 15 months. On average, children had been in center care for 8% of the time in the first months, 10% of time by 24 months, 14% of time by 36 months, and 21% of the time by months. Quantity reflected the mean hours of child care per week that the child had experienced between birth and the assessment age. The total hours of child care for each age was computed as the sum of hours across all the arrangements used at a given age. We then computed the cumulative quantity of care by averaging the total hours reported from each phone call from birth through the age of assessment of the outcome measures. For example, the quantity of care at 15 months was computed as the mean of the hours of care reported by the mother during the phone calls between the time the child was 1 and 15 months of age. On average, children experienced child care for 18.2 hours per week in their first 15 months, 20.1 hours per week in their first 24 months, 21.6 hours per week in their first 36 months, and 23.7 months per week in their first 54 months. Observational assessments of quality were obtained for primary nonmaternal arrangements that were used for 10 or more hours per week at 6, 15, 24, 36, and 54 months. Observations were conducted during two half-day visits scheduled within a 2-week interval at 6-36 months and one half-day visit at 54 months. At each half-day visit, observers completed two 44-minute cycles of the Observational Record of the Caregiving Environment (ORCE; NICHD ECCRN 1996; 2002). Positive caregiving composites were calculated from four point ratings of sensitivity to child’s nondistress signals, stimulation of cognitive development, positive regard for child, emotional detachment (reversed), flatness of affect (reversed), intrusiveness (reversed), and detachment (reversed). A score of 1 indicated extremely insensitive caregiving and a score of 4 indicated frequent responsive and sensitive caregiving. Again, cumulative measures were computed using all quality assessments collected between the first measures at 6 months through the age of assessment. For example, the various child outcomes at 24 months were related to the mean of the 6, 15, and 24 month ORCE quality ratings. On average, quality was moderately high, ranging from 2.87 at 36 months to 2.96 at 6 months. Child Outcomes. Child outcomes analyzed for the present report include measures of cognition, language, social-emotional functioning, and peer relations. Testers for all the direct assessments were centrally trained and certified in their administration and scoring of the instruments. At 15 and 24 months, cognitive skills were measured when children were administered the Bayley Mental Developmental Index, is a standard score with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15 in the norming sample. The scores of the test administered at 15 months were based on 1969 norms (Bayley, 1969), whereas scores of the 25 month test the Bayley test were based a 1993 revision of the test (Bayley, 1993). This resulted in substantially lower scores due to the more appropriate norms in the newer test. At 36 and 54 months, language was assessed. The Reynell Developmental Language Scales (RDLS) (Reynell, 1991) were administered at 36 months. It includes two 67-item scales assessing receptive language and expressive vocabulary. Standard scores were used in analyses. Alphas were .93 for receptive language and .86 for expressive vocabulary. At 54 months, language competence was assessed using the Preschool Language Scale (PLS-3) (Zimmerman, Steiner, & Pond, 1979). It measures a range of language behaviors, including vocabulary, morphology, syntax, and integrative thinking, which are grouped into two subscales: Auditory Comprehension and Expressive Language (Cronbach alphas = .89 and .92 respectively in the current study). At 36 and 54 months, children’s school readiness was also assessed. The Bracken School Readiness Composite (Bracken, 1984) was administered at 36 months, with percentile rank used as our index of school readiness. At 54 months, children were administered selected scales from the Woodcock Johnson Achievement and Cognitive Batteries (1990). The Letter-Word Identification test measures skills at identifying letters and words. The Applied Problems test measures skills in analyzing and solving practical problems in mathematics. Standardized scores were computed based on norms with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15. At 54 months, attention and memory were measured. Short-term memory was assessed using the Woodcock Johnson Cognitive Memory for Sentences subtest. The standardized score was computed (alpha=.84 in this sample). The Continuous Performance Task (CPT) (Rosvold, Mirsky, Sarason, Bransome, & Beck, 1956) was administered to measure errors of omission as a measure of sustained attention. Social competence was measured with questionnaires completed by the mother and caregivers at 24, 36, and 54 months. The Adaptive Social Behavior Inventory (ASBI) (Hogan, Scott, & Bauer, 1992) was administered at 24 and 36 months and measured cooperative behavior. At 54 months, mothers completed the 38-item Social Skills Questionnaire from the Social Skills Rating System (SSQ) (Gresham & Elliott, 1990) and caregivers completed the California Preschool Social Competency Scale (Levine, Elzey & Lewis, 1969). Behavior problems were assessed by having mothers and caregivers complete the age appropriate versions of the Child Behavior Checklist (Achenbach, 1991; Achenbach, Edelbrook, & Howell, 1987). Both the parent and teacher version contained a total problem behavior standard T-scores, based on normative data for children of the same age (M=50, SD=10). Peer relations were assessed at 36 and 54 months (see NICHD ECCRN peer paper). ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ were observed while they interacted with a peer during three structured play episodes and trained observers rated social behavior for each episode and interactions with peers in child care. Separate composites were created from these ratings in the two setting. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ scored higher on a Positive Peer Skills composite score if they played in more positive, cooperative, complex ways, and more often resolved conflict by prosocial means. They scored higher on Peer Negative/Aggression if they displayed more instrumental aggression, hostile aggression, and negative mood. In addition, as part of the child care observation at 54 months, the interactions of the study child with peers in the child care setting were recorded during each of the observation periods. Ways of Examining Child Outcomes We present two sets of models relating child care to child outcomes. Each contains a common set of selection variables in order to compare effect sizes across outcomes. There are two families of effect sizes, r and d (Rosenthal, 1994). For each outcome, we conducted two analyses. A regression analysis described the association between two continuous variables and that yielded an r. An analysis of variance compared extreme group means and yielded a d (Cohen, 1988). ‘r’ = sš XY š/š šsš Xsš Y -- degree to which changes in standard deviation units in one variable correspond to linear changes of one standard deviation in the other variable  d = (M1  M2) / sšY -- standardized difference between means from two groups The r or correlation is a standardized measure of linear association and describes the extent to which a change in the predictor is related to change in the outcome. For example, the correlation between quality and cognitive outcomes reflects the degree to which higher cognitive scores tend to occur when children experience higher quality. The d or standardized difference between the means describes the difference between groups in standard deviation units on the outcome variable, adjusted for all covariates included in the regression analysis. It is computed as the difference between two means divided by the pooled standard deviation. In these analyses we used the continuous measures of parenting and child care quality, quantity, and type to estimate the ‘r’ effect sizes, but we created extreme groups to estimate the ‘d’ effect sizes. Quartile splits were conducted for parenting, child care quality, and child care quantity and the top and bottom quartile were compared. For child care type, we compared children with no center experience with children with any center experience at 15, 24, and 36 months and with children who had been in centers for 33% of the time at 54 months. It was not possible to compare quartiles for center care because many more than 25% of the children had no center experience through 36 months. That is, almost all of the children in child care prior to 36 months were in other types of child care besides center care. Table 2 shows the ranges that defined the extreme groups that were compared in the ANCOVAs. As an example, to compute this effect size for the relation between quality care and cognitive skills, we compared adjusted means on cognitive assessments for children who experienced care in the highest and lowest quartile on child care quality and divide that difference by our best estimate of the standard deviation, the root mean squared error in the ANCOVA. For each outcome, we computed four effect sizes: the structural coefficient, the zero-order correlation, the partial correlation adjusting for all other outcomes, and the adjusted mean difference. Three of the four effect size measures describe linear associations between child care characteristics and child outcomes, and were estimated with regression models. The final effect size measure compares the means of extreme groups using ANCOVA. Covariates were considered when estimating two effect sizes, partial correlation and comparisons of extreme groups, included 9 dummy-coded variables to represent the 10 sites, mother’s education, ethnicity, whether the mother reported a partner in the household at that age, the cumulative income-to-needs ratio, mother’s adjustment, home quality, gender, the cumulative rating of quality of care, percent time in center care, and hours in child care. The structural coefficient (Courville & Thompson, 2001) provides an estimate of the linear association between the predictor and outcome if one corrects for error of measurement and assumes that all shared variance with other variables is due to the relation between the predictor and outcome. As such it provides the most liberal estimate of the linear association. Specifically, this measure reflects the relative predictive power of each predictor included in the analysis model without adjusting for shared variance among the predictors and after adjusting for the downward estimation due to measurement error. The structural coefficient is computed as the zero-order correlation between a predictor and outcome measure divided by the multiple correlation. These coefficients are interpreted descriptively without references to p-values. They should be contrasted within the context of a given model by identifying the coefficients that are largest as the best unconditional predictors if the overall model provides significant prediction of the outcome. The structural and standardized coefficients describe the degree that predictor is associated with the outcome and the extent it provides unique prediction. The other two correlation coefficients also describe the linear association, but provide less liberal effect size estimates. The zero-order correlation provides an index of the linear association between the predictor and outcome that ignores shared variance with other variables, but does not correct for attenuation due to error. The partial correlation provides an index of the linear association after adjusting for shared variance with the other predictors in the model. It was computed from a regression analysis. The adjusted mean difference provides an index of the mean difference between extreme groups in our case after adjusting for the other child care characteristics and covariates. We categorized the three child care and the one parenting variables using a quartile split when possible. The adjusted means for children in the top and bottom quartiles were compared in analyses of covariance (ANCOVA). The four effect sizes estimates vary in terms of whether they adjust for covariates. The partial correlation and adjusted mean differences take into account possible selection effects, whereas the structural coefficient and zero-order correlations do not. Selection bias occurs when causal factors related to both predictor and outcomes are not considered. For example, if parents who provide more cognitive stimulation select better quality child care, then some of the correlation between quality and child outcomes reflects both the causal association between child care quality and child outcomes as well as the association between parenting and child outcomes. Therefore, the structural coefficients and zero-order correlations are almost certainly too liberal. However, partial correlations and adjusted mean differences may underestimate the true correlation. This happens when the causal associations between predictor and outcome covary with the other predictor variables. For example, if access to good quality care is mostly restricted to families with higher incomes, then the true relations between quality and child outcomes will be underestimated when income is included as a covariate because there is little information in the data that will allow the disentangling of the income and quality effects. We computed effect sizes for exclusive maternal care, quality of care, quantity of care, and amount of center care. Maternal care was a categorical variable so only the “d” effect size was computed. Child care quality, quantity, and type were measured as continuous variables, and all four effect sizes were computed. Cohen (1988) developed rough guidelines for power analyses, and these guidelines have been used to interpret the magnitude of statistically significant findings. He suggested that effect sizes based on correlations (simple or partial) be regarded as small or modest if .09 < |r| < .19 , as moderate if .20 < |r| < .39, and as large if |r| > .40. Effect sizes based on standardized mean differences are regarded as modest if .20 < |d| < .40, moderate if .40 < |d| < .70, and as large if | d|> .70. Overview of Major Findings Descriptive information for the covariates, child outcomes, parenting, and child care quality, quantity, and type is provided in Table 1. Table 2 describes the extreme groups used to in the ANOVAs to compare children in high and low groups for parenting and child care quality, quantity, and type. The table lists the minimum and maximum values for each group. Correlations among Child Care Dimensions. Table 3 shows the correlations among child care dimensions. As reported previously (NICHD ECCRN, 2000; 2003), children who experienced higher quality care on average tended to spend fewer hours per week in child care (-.22 < r < -.07) and to be in center care for fewer months overall (-.23 < r < -.14). In addition, children who were in center care more often over time also tended to spend more time per week in child care (.19 < r < .35). Family Characteristics and Child Care Dimensions Before examining child outcomes, we documented the extent to which the selected child care dimensions were associated with the selected child and family characteristics. Table 4 shows the correlations between the continuous family characteristics and whether the child received routine child care, average quality of care, average hours of care, proportion of time in center care, and the parenting composite. Table 4 also lists the results from tests of the association between the two categorical factors, gender and ethnicity. Differences associated with exclusive maternal care were tested with logistic regression and those with child care quality, hours, and type were tested with analyses of variance. Note, relatively high stability of correlations across time is expected because each family characteristic and child care dimension represents cumulative experiences from birth through the age of assessments. Exclusive Maternal Care. Use of child care showed a small to moderate relation to the selected family characteristics (see NICHD ECCRN, 1996 for details). ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ with exclusive maternal care had mothers with less education, more depressive symptoms, less sensitive parenting style, and they had families with less income. Neither gender nor ethnicity was significantly related to exclusive maternal care. Child Care Dimensions. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ from more advantaged families tended to experience higher quality child care environments, more hours of child care, and more center care (see NICHD ECCRN, 1997; 2002 for details). ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ experienced higher quality child care when mothers had more education; when families had two parents, more income, or provided more sensitive parenting; or when children were White rather than African-American or Hispanic. Parenting was the single largest predictor of child care quality, with moderate associations at each age. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who experienced more hours of child care per week had mothers with slightly more education and fewer depressive symptoms, and families with slightly higher incomes. Hours of child care was not significantly related to parenting, gender, or ethnicity. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who spent more time in child care centers also tended to have mothers with slightly more education, families with more income, and parents who were more responsive and sensitive in interactions. Center care was not related to gender, ethnicity, maternal depression, or whether there were two parents in the household. Exclusive Maternal Care and Child Outcomes. In this reanalysis, ANCOVAs compared the means of children with child care experience with the means of children in exclusive maternal care. The effect sizes from these analyses are shown in the first column in Table 5. The d was the only effect size that could be computed in these analyses because exclusive maternal care was a categorical. In addition, the outcomes collected in child care could not be examined since they were not collected for children with exclusive maternal care, and are left blank in Table 5. Almost no evidence emerged suggesting that child outcomes were related to whether or not the child experienced routine nonmaternal care (see NICHD ECCRN, 1998; 2000a). As can be seen in the first column of Table 5, only one outcome – the Bayley Mental Development Index assessed at 24 months – showed statistically significant differences between children reared exclusively in maternal care and children experiencing child care. Use of child care was not significantly and substantively related to cognitive outcomes at 15, 36, or 54 months, or to social or peer outcomes at any age. Follow-up analyses asked whether quality of parenting was more strongly related to outcomes depending on whether the child was cared for exclusively by the mother. None of those interactions achieved statistical significance. Child Care Characteristics and Parenting and Child Outcomes While previous work documented associations between child care quality and cognitive (NICHD ECCRN, 2000a, 2001a, 2002; NICHD ECCRN & Duncan, 2003) and social (NICHD 1998) outcomes, child care quantity and behavior problems (NICHD ECCRN, 1998, 2000a, 2003), and center care and both cognitive outcomes (NICHD ECCRN, 2000; 2002; NICHD ECCRN & Duncan, 2003) and behavior problems (NICHD ECCRN, 2002, in press), differences in the analysis models and methods across these papers limit the extent to which findings can be compared and contrasted. For this reason, the final set of analyses for this paper examined the relations between child care characteristics and child outcomes among children who experienced child care. The set of columns in Table 5 labeled “child care quality” lists the four effect sizes associated with child care quality. The next sets of columns show the four effect sizes associated with child care hours, center care, and parenting, respectively. Within each set, the effect sizes range from being quite liberal (structural coefficients labeled as r/R), liberal (correlation labeled as r), to being potentially conservative analyses treating the predictor as a continuous variable (partial correlation labeled as rp) or as comparison of extreme group (standardized mean difference labeled as d). Analyses to estimate the partial correlation or the standardized mean difference included parenting, the three child care dimensions (quality, hours, center care) and the same covariates as used in the analyses of exclusive maternal care. The results for parenting were included as a reference for interpreting the child care effect sizes. Parenting. The final columns of Table 5 list the effect sizes associated with parenting. For example, the values in the first two under the heading labeled “Parenting” lists the estimated effect sizes relating parenting to the 15 month MDI: the structural coefficient, which adjusts for attenuation and ignore covariates (R/r = .57); the correlation, which ignores covariates (r = .24); the partial correlation, which adjusts for covariates (rp = .12); and the standardized mean difference, which compares extreme groups and also adjusts for covariates (d = .40). Overall, parenting showed moderate to large effect sizes, suggesting that children who experienced more responsive and stimulating care from parents had higher scores on cognitive, language, social-emotional, and peer outcomes at all ages. Similar conclusions were drawn from analyses that did and did not adjust for the child care and other family characteristics. The unadjusted parenting effect sizes tended to be moderate to large for cognitive outcomes at all ages, and moderate for maternal and caregiver ratings of social skills and caregiver ratings. Similarly, the parenting effect sizes that adjusted for the covariates also indicated consistent and moderate to large associations with all cognitive outcomes (.17 < rp < .34; .40 < d < 1.23) and moderate to large associations with many social-emotional outcomes (-.08 < rp < .23; -.33 < d < .83), and about half of the peer outcomes (.11 < rp < .16; -.34 < d < .55). Child Care Quality. Child care quality was significantly, albeit modestly to moderately, associated with most outcomes in these analyses as they were in previous papers (NICHD ECCRN, 1998, 2000a, 2001a, 2002). ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who experienced higher quality child care scored modestly higher on all cognitive measures, most ratings of social outcomes, and some of the peer outcomes according to the structural coefficients and zero-order correlations. After adjusting for family and other child care characteristics, regression analyses suggested that children in higher quality care had modestly higher scores on almost all cognitive outcomes: cognitive outcomes at 24 months (rp = .11); academic and language skills at 36 months (.08 < rp < .12) and at 54 months (.09 < rp < .10). ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ in higher quality care were also rated by the caregivers as displaying more social skills at 24 months (rp=.16) and 54 months (rp=.10), and less conflict with the teacher at 54 months (rp = -.09). Comparisons of child outcomes for children in high and low quality care yielded almost exactly the same conclusions, providing further evidence that the association between quality and child outcomes is linear. These effect sizes (listed under column labeled d) also suggested modest associations with all cognitive and language outcomes, and modest to moderate association with some of the social-emotional or peer outcomes. Next, we used the parenting effect sizes as an index for interpreting the child care quality effect sizes. The most consistent association between child care quality and outcomes was for the cognitive and language measures from 24, 36, and 54 months. Relative to the parenting effect sizes, the child care quality effect sizes for these outcomes ranged from about a half as large as parenting effects at 24 and 36 months to about a third as large at 54 months. For example, the partial correlation between cognitive skills at 24 months and quality was .11 and parenting was .22. For caregiver ratings of behavior in child care, effect sizes for child care quality ranged from about twice the size of the corresponding parenting effect sizes to slightly smaller than the parenting effects. Child Care Quantity. The next four columns in Table 5 list the computed effect sizes associated with average hours of child care from birth through the age of assessment. Child care hours were significantly, although modestly, associated with several outcomes as reported in previous papers (NICHD, 1998, 2002, 2003). The unadjusted structural coefficients and correlations suggested that cognitive and language skills were more advanced in children with more hours in child care at 24 and 36 months, and that caregivers tended to report more problem behaviors and fewer social skills at 54 months when children had more hours of child care. After adjusting for covariates, the partial correlations suggested that children with higher hours of child care per week were rated by their caregivers as showing modestly more problem behavior at 36 (rp =.09) and 54 months (rp =.14) and more caregiver-child conflict at 54 months (rp =.13). In addition, children who spent more time in child care were observed as exhibiting somewhat more negative behavior with a peer at 54 months (rp =.10). Again, the comparisons of children who experience low and high hours of care per week suggested that children with higher hours of child care per week showed modestly to moderately showing more social skills at 24 months (d = .32), but more problem behavior at 36 (d =.29) and 54 months (d=.42) and more caregiver-child conflict at 54 months (d=.40) according to their child care provider and observed as showing more negative behavior with a peer at 54 months (d=.30). Next, we compared the significant effect sizes for child care hours with the corresponding effect sizes for parenting. The standardized mean difference (d) for child care hours ranged from being two times larger than the corresponding parenting effect sizes to slightly smaller than the parenting effect for both social behaviors in child care and with peers. Center Care . The final child care characteristics examined extensively by the network was the proportion of time in which the mother reported that the child was enrolled in a child care center (NICHD ECCRN, 2002, in press; NICHD ECCRN & Duncan, 2003). We focused on center care because only center care was related to child outcomes (NICHD ECCRN, 2004). Results are shown in Table 4, under the heading “Center Care”. Many children had little or no time at center care between birth and either 24 or 36 months. Accordingly, this variable was highly skewed toward zero. Correlations were computed for the sake of consistency, but we focused on the standardized differences between the means because this type of effect size provided estimates with more desirable statistical characteristics. We compared children with no center care with children who had any center care at 15, 24, and 36 months and with children who had attended center at least one-third of the time by 54 months. More time in center care was significantly, but modestly, related to better cognitive and language outcomes and to more positive peer interactions, but also to more behavior problems according to the caregiver. After adjusting for covariates, children with more center care showed modestly higher cognitive skills at 24 months (d=.20), better receptive language at 36 months (d=.21), and better memory skills at 54 months (d=.19). More center care was also modestly related to more positive interactions with peers at 54 months in free play with a friend (d=.21), but also to lower ratings of social skills by the caregiver at 24 ( d=-.28) and 36 months (d=-.18), and to ratings of more problem behaviors at 36 months (d=.20). Comparison of these mixed significant center effect sizes with the corresponding parenting effect sizes also presented a mixed picture. The standardized mean differences (d) for center effect tended to be about one quarter the size of the corresponding parenting effect sizes for cognitive outcomes and ranged from being similar in size to being much smaller than corresponding parenting effects for social and peer outcomes. Parenting as a Moderator of Child Care Effects The final question we addressed (NICHD ECCRN, 1998; 2000a, 2002) involved testing the compensation/lost resources hypothesis. We tested whether the three child care characteristics were more positively related to child outcomes when parenting was less optimal and more negatively related when parenting was more optimal. We tested whether child care quality, quantity, and center care were associated with each outcome differently in the four parenting groups defined by the quartile split. Seven significant interactions were obtained across the 28 outcomes tested for interactions involving child quality, hours, and center care (i.e., 84 tests of interactions). Across these seven outcomes, we do not see a consistent pattern suggesting more optimal outcomes associated with child care for the lowest parenting quartile or less optimal outcomes associated with child care for the highest parenting quartile. Implications and Application The primary purpose of this report is to provide a concise summary of child care and parenting findings, a summary that permits direct comparisons across different ages and selected developmental outcomes from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. These findings are presented in analyses that address issues of selection bias because children’s child care and parenting experiences varied systematically with characteristics of their families (i.e., selection effects). Specifically, whether the child was in child care and child care quality, quantity, and type were linked to both family characteristics and child outcomes. Families opting to use exclusive maternal care tended to be less advantaged. The mothers choosing exclusive maternal care had less income, less education, more depressive symptoms, and less sensitive parenting skills. In contrast, more advantaged families tended to place their child in higher quality care, more hours of child care per week, and center care for a longer period. Higher quality care was associated with more income, two-parent households, more maternal education, less maternal depression, and being in white or other ethnic groups. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who experienced more hours of child care or who spent more time in center care tended to be from families with more income and mothers with more education. Use of center care was also associated with more positive parenting. These findings provide further evidence (c.f., Lamb, 1998; Vandell, 2004) that family characteristics must be taken into account when asking whether child care experiences are related to child outcomes. Longitudinal analyses, from 24 to 54 months, documented clear, and for the most part, consistent relations between child care experience during the infant, toddler and preschool years and children’s cognitive, language, and socio-emotional development in analyses that adjusted statistically for family selection factors by including them as covariates. Overall, parenting emerged as a consistent and strong predictor of all child outcomes, child care quality was a consistent and modest predictor of most child outcomes, child care quantity was a consistent and modest predictor of social behavior, and child care type was an inconsistent and modest predictor of cognitive and social outcomes. In addition, comparisons between children with exclusive maternal care with children in child care yielded only one significant difference over time and across outcomes, a rate less than what would be expected by chance alone. These findings provide compelling evidence that knowledge about whether a child is in care, in and of itself, cannot inform predictions for child development. Knowledge concerning variations in multiple features of parenting and child care experience for those children in child care can inform such predictions. Multiple Features of Child Care Matter Child care quality, operationalized by sensitive and responsive caregiving as well as by cognitive and language stimulation, was a significant predictor of almost all cognitive, language, and pre-academic outcomes as well as some socio-emotional and peer outcomes1. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who experienced higher quality care over time performed better than other children on tests of cognitive, language, and academic skills at all ages. They were also rated at some ages by their caregivers as showing more prosocial skills and fewer behavior problems and, again at some ages, they were observed to display fewer negative behaviors in interactions with peers in the child care setting itself. These findings are consistent with almost all of the large and many of the smaller studies relating child care quality to child outcomes (c.f., Vandell, 2004). Quantity of child care, operationalized in terms of mean hours per week in any kind of nonmaternal care also was a significant predictor of children’s social functioning2. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who spent more time in any kind of child care were rated by caregivers as having more problem behaviors at 36 and 54 months and teacher-child conflict at 54 months, after showing more prosocial skills at 24 months. They also displayed more negative behaviors in interactions with a friend at 54 months. These findings, too, are consistent with previous research suggesting that extensive child care expensive beginning early in life was related to more behavior problems according to the teacher (Bates, Marvinney, Kelly, Dodge, Bennett., & Pettit,1994; Belsky (2001); Haskins, 1986; Hofferth & Youngblade, 1999; Lally, Mangions, & Honig, 1988). Type of care effects were also detected, such that experience in center care showed a mixed and pattern of associations with child outcomes. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ who experienced more center care had stronger cognitive skills at 24 months, language skills at 36 months, and memory skills at 54 months. They also displayed more positive behaviors in interactions with a friend at 54 months, but were rated by caregivers as showing fewer prosocial skills and more behavior problems at two of the three measurement periods3. Again, previous work also suggested that center care was related to both stronger cognitive skills and more behavior problems (Haskins, 1986; Lally, Mangions, & Honig, 1988; Park & Honig, 1991). The evidence from this study suggest that quality, quantity and type of care make distinctive and independent contributions to the prediction of children’s development, and this is perhaps the most important scientific contribution of this project. As noted in the introduction, this is largely because prior work has not been positioned to investigate simultaneously these three characteristics of child care prospectively from birth. As a result, the NICHD Network has been able to move beyond the question of whether early child care is good or bad for children to illuminate the conditions under which children’s functioning is related to their early child care experiences. Although we report effect sizes, the term “effect” refers to experimental data in which causality can be determined. The limits inherent to non-experimental designs, like that of the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, primarily concern child care selection by families. Results from the family selection analyses clearly demonstrate that selection bias must be considered, with quality, quantity, and type of child care clearly associated with both family characteristics and child outcomes at all ages. ŗŚĮĻĒé±ØÕ¾ from more advantaged families were more likely to use child care – especially center care, to be in higher quality arrangements, and to have more hours per week of child care. This makes it is clear that family characteristics must be considered when estimating indices of the association between child care experiences and child outcomes. Our previous work has demonstrated that more stringent econometric methods that attempt to account completely for selection effects yielded findings similar to those from the analyses used in the paper in which we adjusted for child and family covariates (NICHD ECCRN & Duncan, 2003). Nevertheless, it is logically impossible to be absolutely certain that family characteristics or other selection factors have not affected the results. Other limitations inherent in this study also likely impact our ability to estimate effect sizes. Measurement of child outcomes in early childhood is far from exact (McCall & Green, 2004). The selected instruments were chosen for their psychometric properties. Nevertheless, it is clear that there is a great deal of error in assessment of young children, especially in measures of social and peer outcomes. Therefore, the amount of “true” score variance that can be accounted for any predictor is reduced to the extent that variability in the scores is due to error rather than to true score variability (Mosteller & Tukey, 1977). Furthermore, very low quality parenting and child care is underrepresented in this sample compared to more representative samples, either because of how the sample was recruited or because those parents or child care providers refused to be observed (NICHD ECCRN, 1996, 2000b). Truncation in the distribution of predictors in general results in the reduction of estimated effect sizes (Mosteller, Frederick & Tukey, 1977). Only with appreciation of these important points can we go on to discuss the findings concerning the estimated effect sizes of child care. Although it is not possible for any statistical method to estimate true causal relations from observational data, it is unlikely that experimental research will address these important questions. Parents are unlikely to participate in studies that randomly assign their young children to low quality child care or to extremely short or long hours of child care, whether in homes or in centers. In the absence of comprehensive experimental data, the results summarized above lead us to conclude cautiously that children’s cognitive and social outcomes may be modestly influenced by the quality of their child care experiences and that children’s social behavior may be modestly influenced by the quantity of their child experiences. Magnitude and Meaning of Child Care Effects Although we are comfortable in drawing conclusions regarding associations between child care experiences and developmental outcomes on the basis of the relative consistency in findings over time and the nature and statistical significance of the detected effects of child care, questions can be raised about the size of the effects under consideration and, consequently, their meaningfulness. Addressing this issue is not straightforward because there is no consensus as to what makes a finding “practically important” (McCartney & Rosenthal, 2000). Consideration of the effect sizes chronicled in this report—from three different perspectives—should make this clear. Thus, we consider first what we refer to as “absolute” effect sizes, then effect sizes of quality, quantity and type of child care relative to parenting (i.e., “relative” effect sizes) and, finally, “contextual effect sizes” which highlight the scope of the phenomenon under investigation. Absolute Effect Sizes. One absolute effect size, namely d, denotes effects in standard units, while another, r, denotes a linear association between two variables. In general, both of these indicators of absolute effect size indicated that consistent and strong effect sizes were observed for parenting and relatively consistent and modest effect sizes were observed for child care quality for cognitive, language, and social outcomes. Further, modest effect sizes for child care hours were observed for social outcomes, whereas effect sizes for center care were less consistent. Although these absolute effect sizes tend to be smaller than those reported in previous experimental studies (Campbell et al., 2001), they are similar in size to estimates from other observational studies that adjusted for family characteristics (Peisner-Feinberg et al., 2001). Interpretation of these modest child care effect sizes involves considering the statistical limitations on estimating true effect sizes. Experimental studies in which high quality child care was provided to low-income children yielded absolute effect sizes on cognitive outcomes that ranged from .5 to 1.0 (e.g., Campbell et al, 2001), and probably provide a ceiling on the magnitude of effect sizes that can be expected in observational studies. Estimates based on correlational methods, such as those used to control for child care selection, provide less reliable estimates because they rely on untestable assumptions (e.g., error of measurement in child care experiences and child outcomes are identical over time, omitted variables, and over- and under-control for selection). Therefore, effect sizes from these analyses may be either too liberal or too conservative. Finally, measurement issues need to be considered in interpreting effect sizes. Measurement of many child outcomes, especially social and peer outcomes, is inexact, and this lack of measurement precision also limits estimated effect sizes regardless of design or statistical analysis. Relative Effect Sizes. Evaluating effect sizes is not straightforward. Measurement, design, method, and field of inquiry each influence absolute effect size estimates. With respect to the latter, even tiny effects are taken seriously in medicine when the outcome is life or death (Rosenthal, 1994). McCartney and Rosenthal (2000) contended that it is useful to compare effects within models, especially when one of the variables in the model is generally accepted to have practical importance. In this report, we compare child care effects to sensitive and responsive parenting, a well established predictor of children’s functioning in this and other work. The fact that this inquiry cannot distinguish between detected effects of parenting that are a function of shared genes and those that derive solely from the experiences of parenting per se means that this comparison of parenting and child care effect sizes is conservative. Nevertheless, features of child care repeatedly emerged as substantive predictors of many child outcomes, though this was by no means always the case. The absolute effect sizes for child care quality ranged from twice the parenting effect sizes for social outcomes to between half to a third as large for cognitive, language and academic outcomes. In the case of quantity of child care, fewer statistically significant (absolute) effect sizes emerged, and all involved social behavior. Those effect sizes, albeit modest, ranged from twice as large as the comparable parenting effect size to somewhat smaller. Finally, the significant, but inconsistent, absolute effect sizes for center care were also modest, and ranged from being slightly larger to one quarter the size of the parenting effects for caregiver ratings of children’s behavior, and were about one quarter as large as parenting effects for the cognitive outcomes. In sum, relative to the detected effects of the most widely accepted predictor of child outcomes, parenting quality, features of child care in this inquiry proved to have small to large effects on children’s development. Collective and Individual Implications. Some phenomena are directly experienced by and thus can directly affect many individuals, whereas others are experienced by rather few and so will directly affect only a few. A phenomenon with small to modest effect on many individuals may have as large an impact collectively as a phenomenon with a large effect size on a few individuals. The vast majority of the nation’s children experience child care (West et al., 2000), and most child care is not of high quality (NICDH ECCRN, 2000b; Peisner-Feinberg et al, 2001; Vandell, 2004). Full-time care beginning in the first year of life is becoming normative (West et al., 2000), and center-based care for infants, although still infrequently used, is among the fastest growing care arrangement used by families (Early & Burchinal, 2001). Whereas cost-benefit analyses are necessary to address questions of collective effect sizes, especially when so many children are involved, neither the costs nor the benefits have been quantified. Therefore, we cautiously rely on the estimated effect sizes from this study to discuss possible collective effect sizes. Developmentalists focus on individual differences among children and seldom consider collective effects. It is more common in other disciplines to consider the influence of a phenomenon on a group or culture. For example, James Heckman (Carneiro & Heckman, 2002), a Nobel laureate in economics, has argued that child care provides our society with one of the few effective means for increasing economic opportunities for its members. His evaluation of the impact of education on economic mobility in US society during the past 100 years led him to conclude that child care programs, especially programs of high quality, appear to provide one of the few cost-effective means for ensuring economic mobility. Heckman’s analysis points to a possible collective benefit from the extensive child care experience of the current generation of children. In contrast, Belsky (2001) wondered whether early, extensive and continuous extensive child care may constitute a collective cost for society insofar as very small increases in the number of problem behaviors associated with full-time child care, such as those reported in this study, may create elementary school classrooms that are more difficult to manage when there are large numbers of children with full-time child care experience. He raised the possibility that having even a few more children with elevated numbers of problem behaviors could encourage other children in the class to imitate these undesirable behaviors, and thereby serve as a catalyst for increasing levels of classroom disruptiveness (Hoglund & Leadbeater, 2004; Kellam, Ling, Merisca, Brown, & Ialongo, 1998; Snyder et al., 2005). Similarly, the small improvements in cognitive and language functioning associated with experiences in higher quality care may have long-term implications for successful transitions to school, for higher level classroom instruction when more children start school with even slightly more advanced cognitive, language and memory skills, and ultimately for higher rates of school success. More complex cost-benefit models are surely required. Many parents turn to research to inform their decisions, so these results can also be discussed in terms of how parents might use these findings. The primary conclusion is that parenting matters much more than child care, so parents might make decisions that allow them to have quality time with their children. In some cases, this might mean that a mother decides to work less because the stress of both working and parenting limits her ability to provide sensitive and responsive care to her children. In other cases, parents might decide that child care is needed because the mother’s income is essential for their family and that their ability to provide sensitive parenting might be impaired without that income. The second conclusion is that maternal exclusive care was not related to better or worse outcomes for children. There is, thus, no reason for mothers to feel like they are harming their children if they decide to work. If they decide to use child care, then decisions about quality, quantity, and type clearly involve trade-offs. Somewhat higher cognitive and social skills were associated with higher quality care, so families that decide to use more child care might feel that the obtained negative moderate effect sizes for behavior problems associated with child care hours or center care are somewhat offset by the small obtained positive effect sizes associated with child care quality. Other parents might decide to use high quality center care in hopes of enhancing cognitive skills, but restrict the numbers of hours of child care in hopes of decreasing behavior problems. It is clear that there are many issues facing parents as they juggle decisions about work and family (Halpern, 2005). Although the findings reported in this report are policy-relevant, they are open to different conclusions for policy makers and parents. Indeed, although the authors of this paper agree on the validity of the findings, they draw somewhat different policy lessons from the results. Specifically, some argue that the absolute effects sizes are small, and therefore that child care experience is of little consequence for the developmental outcomes of most children. Others argue that the relative effect sizes are of practical importance compared with family effects sizes, which set an upper bound. Still others argue that even small effects are important because of the large number of children who experience child care on a daily basis. Indeed, the multiple authors of this report are not alone within (or beyond) the field of child development in interpreting the current findings—as well as others in the literature—differently with respect to their importance and implications for parents and policymakers. In fact, these data as they stand do not test specific policies, so they cannot speak directly to specific comparisons of policies. a group, we recognize that any simplistic notions about the application of this research to policy with respect to child care is naļve, and suggest that more complicated cost-benefit analyses and direct tests of particular policies are required to understand the implications of child care experiences at a societal level.4 Nevertheless, based on the assumption that even modest child care effects for large numbers of children should be considered when formulating policy, our results support policies that support parents and improve the quality of care by child care providers and reduce the amount of time children spend in child care. We acknowledge that our data do not address questions concerning how best to attain policy goals, but provide a list of possible policies that may achieve these goals. Our results provide support for programs designed to improve the child care quality. These include policies that invest funds in child care teacher training and professional development, offer incentives to programs to provide quality care, support regulations and inspections, offer vouchers so parents can afford higher quality care programs, and fund programs such as Head Start or pre-kindergarten that allow access to high quality care for children from low-income families. Because high quality care for infants and toddlers is often unavailable, it is especially important to focus efforts on improving the quality for children younger than age three years. In addition, our results also provide support for policies that reduce the amount of time children spend in child care. These include programs that support extended welfare benefits or workplace policies that offer flexible hours and paid parental leave5 at any time during the child’s first five years, not exclusively following the child’s birth. We note that findings by child-care researchers in the United Kingdom that are very much in line with those reported herein (Sammons et al., 2002, 2003) have directly influenced policymakers to embark on a set of policy changes to (a) extend partially paid parental leaves, (b) offer high-quality subsidized child care to all children ages 1-5, and (c) offer free half-day early education for all 2-, 3- and 4-year-olds (Alakeson, 2004). Because results reported herein also chronicle consistent beneficial effects on diverse aspects of child development of warm, sensitive, stimulating parenting, the findings from the NICHD SECCYD also support policy initiatives that promote growth-facilitating parenting, including home-visiting programs already demonstrated to be effective in this regard (e.g., Breakey & Pratt, 1991; Gomby et al. 1999; Olds et al. 1993, Sweet & Appelbaum, 2004) . Indeed, an important strength of our research is in showing that both family and child care affect the development of children who are in child care and in identifying the specific family and child care features that affect the development of young children, thereby providing the building blocks for crafting worthwhile programs and policies. Research, no doubt, influences beliefs. It is in this sense that data on child care are of inherent value, especially in an age of evidence-based policies. More research on child care is needed, especially cost-benefit analyses on the long-term effects of child care experiences related to quality, quantity, and amount of care; natural and, ideally, quasi experimental studies of variations in child care experiences[note: they can’t be true experiments, because we can’t control the control group]; and experimental studies to identify the mechanisms by which variations in child care quality, quantity, or type exert their effects on child outcomes. Nevertheless, it is important to consider that even well-established conclusions about child care and family effect sizes may not lead to policy changes, because policymakers view data in conjunction with compelling testimonies from ordinary citizens, newspaper exposes, and partisan politics (McCartney & Weiss, in press). Social scientists may emphasize data, but others do not (Shonkoff, 2000). Even when policymakers embrace research findings, they need to balance multiple competing demands for funds, ranging from education to health care to defense. Thus, as a research network, we call attention, in closing, to the following facts: Large numbers of children in the U.S. today spend large amounts of time in a variety of child care arrangements between birth and the time that they start school, and the quality of much of the available care is neither very high or very low. Although there may be no bridge to cross the divide between research and practice, researchers, policymakers, and parents alike will make better-informed decisions with the knowledge gained from this study. Endnotes 1 Associations between child care quality and maternal sensitivity and child engagement during mother-child interactions were also detected (NICHD ECCRN, 1998), but not included in this report because of its focus on parenting effect sizes to study relative effect sizes. 2 While associations between child care hours and social behavior in child care were consistently detected in this paper, other papers reported that child care hours was a negative predictor of attachment security when combined with low maternal sensitivity (NICHD ECCRN, 1997), of maternal sensitivity and child engagement during mother-child interactions in the first 3 years of life (NICHD ECCRN 1998), teacher and maternal ratings of social outcomes at entry to kindergarten (NCIDH ECCRN, 2003), and of ear infections and respiratory illness (NICHD ECCRN, 2001b). 3 Positive associations between center care and cognitive development at 24 and 54 months (NICHD ECCRN, 2003) and with respiratory illness (NICHD ECCRN, 2001b) have also been reported. 4 Policy related suggestions made in this paper reflect the views of the grantee investigators and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development. 5 Parental leave at any time during childhood, not necessarily following the child’s birth, would provide a means to reduce the overall amount of child care experienced by children. 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Depression M (sd)9.79 (6.99)9.69 (7.78)9.58 (6.55)9.73 (6.46)Child Outcomes Cognitive Outcomes Bayley Mental Developmental IM (sd)117.4 (14.092.2 (14.6)  Bracken School Readiness M (sd)  41.6 (26.6) Reynell Receptive Language M (sd)  97.9 (15.9) Reynell Expressive LanguageM (sd)  96.9 (14.5) PLS Total Language M (sd) 3.71 (2.91)99.6 (20.4) WJ-R Pre-Academic CompositeM (sd) 86% 99.7 (11.7) WJ Memory for Sentences Score M (sd93.0 (18.6) Log CPT Number of Omissions M (sd)2.0 (.8)  Social-Emotional Outcomes Ratings by Mother ASBI Prosocial Composite M(sd)58.1 (5.6)58.1 (5.6) SSRS Social Skills Score M (sd)  98.3 (13.5) CBCL Total Behavior Problems tM (sd)51.6 (8.7)51.7 (9.0) 50.8 (9.4)  PCRS Conflict with Child Scale M (sd)  27.3 (7.6)  Table 1 continued 15 months (n=1174)24 months (n=1187)36 months (n=1175)54 months (n=1093) Ratings by Caregiver ASBI Prosocial Compositea M (sd)58.1 (5.6)58.1 (5.6) California Social Skills Scorea M (sd)  104.9 (13.5 CBCL Total Behavior Problems taM (sd)46.8 (10.2)46.0 (10.2)50.5 (10.1) TCRS Conflict with Child Scalea M (sd)  18.7 (6.6)  Peer Relations Positive Interactions with Friendb M (sd) 0 (5.5) 0 (.8) Negative Interactions with Friendb M (sd)0 (2.4) .2 (1.0)  Positive Interactions in Child Careb M (sd) 2.3 (1.0)  Negative Interactions in Child CarebM (sd) .9 (.8)Parenting M (sd).02 (.75).01 (.72).00 (.73) .01 (.71)Child Care Exclusive Maternal Care %25% 19% 16%  5% Mean Hours of Care per Weekc M (sd)18.2 (14.320.1 (14.6)21.6 (14.7) 23.7 (14.2)Proportion Time in a Center Carec M (sd).08 (.21).10 (.23).14 (.25) .21 (.26)Mean Child Care Quality Ratingc M (sd)2.96 (.51)2.91 (.48)2.87 (.43)2.92 (.42)  Note: Sample sizes vary somewhat across measures, but are substantially smaller for measures completed by caregivers or observed in child care, based on rating of observed interactions with peers, or for child care measures. a sample sizes for measures completed by caregiver providers varied from 556-564 at 24 months, 613-620 at 36 months, and 705-739 at 54 months. b sample size for ratings of observed peer interactions with a friend was 545 at 36 months and 723 at 54 months and in child care was 853 at 54 months c sample size for the children with child care data was 880 for 15 months, 940-957 for 24 months, 955-987 for 36 months, and 998-1006 at 54 months. Table 2 Defining High and Low Parenting and Child Care Groupsa 15 months 24 months 36 months 54 months Parentingb Low Group-3.2-.36-3.4- -.4-3.4- -.4-3.4 - -.4  High Group.55-1.43.54-1.37.5-1.4 .5-1.4ORCE Qualityb Low Group1.3-2.61.1-2.61.5-2.551.5-2.64 High Group3.3-4.03.25-4.03.18-3.953.22-3.95Hours of Careb Low Group1-161-15.7 1.5-15.7.5-13.8 High Group34.4-60.735.9-58.837.2-56.837.6-57Center Carec Low Group0 0 0  0 High Group.17-.83.11-.92.07-.92 .33-.94Note: aHigh and low groups were created for parenting and child care predictors in order to compute effect sizes comparing children who experienced high and low levels of each child care and parenting variable. The groups are defined here based on reporting the scores included in the high and low groups. b Quartile split used to create groups. Low group is bottom quartile. High group is top quartile. Sample sizes per group were 168-181 at 15 months, 192-210 at 24 months, 209-224 at 36 months, and 222-250 at 54 months. c Quartile split not possible due to overlapping quartile. No center care is compared with any center care at 15, 24, and 36 months and with at least 33% center care at 54 months. Samples sizes for the low and high groups, respectively, were 577 & 195 at 15 months, 591 & 271 at 24 months, 520 & 449 at 36 months, and 370 & 260 at 54 months. Table 3 Correlations among Measures of Child Care Quality, Hours, and Center Care Child Care HoursCenter CareChild Care Quality 15mr-.14***-.14*** 24mr-.08*-.23*** 36mr-.07*-.20*** 54mr-.22***-.18***Child Care Hours 15mr.19*** 24mr.24*** 36mr.28*** 54mr.35*** Note: * p <.05; ** p<.01; *** p<.001 Table 4 Family Selection Effect Sizes: Family and Child Selection Factors and Child Care Experiences Effect SizePairwise contrastsAgeStatisticMaternal EducationIncome /Poverty ThresholdPartner in HH-%timeMaternal Depressive SymptomsParentingGenderEthnic.Exclusive Maternal Care15m d-.21***-.37***.06.24***-.07nsns24md -.25***-.40***.02.22**-.15*nsns36md -.26***-.39***.04.26***-.15*nsns54md -.32**-.55***-.10.13-.23*nsnsChild Care Quality: ORCE Rating15m r.14***.15***.17***-.06.26***F>M*B,H< W,O***24mr.19***.19***.18***-.09**.30***nsB,H< W,O***36mr.24***.23***.21***-.13***.34***nsB,H< W,O***54mr.21***.21***.21***-.08**.30***nsBH*24mr.10***.11***.04.02.07*nsns36mr.14***.16***.03-.00.09**nsns54mr.15***.17***-.03-.01.08*nsns Note * p <.05; ** p<.01; *** p<.001 Table 5. Child Care and Parenting Effect Sizes Maternal CareChild Care QualityChild Care QuantityCenter CareParentingd r/Rrrpd r/Rrrpd r/Rrrpd r/Rrrpd15m outcomes                     Cognitive Development                      Mental Develop. Index-.03 .34.14***.07.23.00.00-.00-.05.22.09*.04.57.24***.12**.40***24 m outcomes  Cognitive Development   Mental Develop. Index-.16* .38.22***.11**.34***.12.07*-.01-.04.21.12***.20*.79.45***.22***.77***Emotional Development   M Social Skills-.13 .28.12***.02.09.12.05.02.09.07.03.05.86.35***.23***.74*** M Behavior Problems-.12 .29-.12***-.06-.26*.15-.06-.03-.10.07-.03-.10.64-.26***-.06.21 CG Social Skills  .6927 ***.16***..41**.10.04.08.32*.41-.16***-.28**.58.23***.08.21 CG Behavior Problems  .46-.16***-.04-.06.17.06.05.08.12.04.07.34-.23***-.09*-.2936 m outcomes  Cognitive Development   School Readiness.01 .44.27***.12***.38***.10.06-.04-.06.21.13***.13.82.50***.24***.89*** Receptive Language-.03 .43.27***.12***.39***.11.07*-.01-.04.21.13***.21**.86.54***.22***.85*** Expressive Language-.04 .43.19***.08*.34**.18.08*.04.10.16.07.08.85.37***.17***.62***Emotional Development   M Social Skills-.14 .31.13***.01.01.05.02.00.05.02.01.00.84.35***.17***.61*** M Behavior Problems-.14 .26-.12***-.05-.16.02-.01.04.08.04-.02.01.57-.26***-.06-.15 CG Social Skills  .43.15***.04.21.20.07.08.23.03.01-.18*.79.27***.18***.72*** CG Behavior Problems  .48-.15***-.08-.32*.22.07.09*.29*.23-.07.20*.74-.23***-.07-.38Peer Relations   Positive interactions-.05 .03.01-.03-.04.27.09.05.06.35.11*.09.56.17***.16***.55*** Negative interactions.14 .13 .03.03.03 .25-.06-.01-.03 .47-.11*-.14 .50-.12*-.06-.27 Table 5 continued Maternal CareChild Care QualityChild Care QuantityCenter CareParentingd r/Rrrpd r/Rrrpd r/Rrrpd r/Rrrpd54 m outcomes                       Cognitive Development                      Total Language -.10 .38.25***.10**.26* .05.03.00.03 .18.12***.06 .91.59***.34***1.23*** WJ Pre-Academic-.14 .38.23***.09**.32** .07.04.03.12 .17.10**.09 .92.54***.32***1.15*** WJ Memory-.17 .36.16*** .06.16 .07.03.00.04 .23.10**.19* .87.38***.21***.83*** Attention - omissions-.16 .4-.12**-.04-.10 .03.01.01-.04 .24-.07*.00 .81-.25***-.15**.63*** Emotional Development                     M Social Skills-.18 .28.11***.04.16 .05-.02-.03-.12 .05.02-.05 .74.29***.19***.70*** M Behaviors Problems-.13  .15-.06*.00.07 .05.02.04.10 .03.01.02 .54-.21***-.08*-.33* M Conflict with Child-.14 .07-.03.04.11 .02.01.03.10 .05.02.07 .49-.20***-.12***-.36* CG Social Skills  .50.19***.10**.31** -.24-.09*-.07-.21 .11-.04.04 .67.27***.15***.83*** CG Behavior Problem  .43-.15***-.03.01 .57.20***.14***.42*** .46.16***.14 .59-.21***-.11**-.51*** CG Conflict with Child  .58-.18***-.09*-.27 .52.16***.13**.40** .68.20***.06 .45-.14***-.07-.35Peer Relations                     Positive, with friend-.18 .40.10**.05.12 -.24-.06-.06-.20 .12.03.21* .35.19***.08.34* Negative, with friend-.13 .49-.11**-.04-.12 .53.12**.10*.30** .13.03-.13 .61-.14***-.04-.19 Log positive, child care  .14-.04-.04-.15 .14 .04-.02-.09 .55.14***.12 .39.11**.11**.36** Log negative, child care  .39-.16***-.14***-.41*** .14.06.01-.03 .10.04.12 .05-.02.04.19 Note: d= standardized difference between high and low group means from ANCOVAs 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$/8:EĄ‚Ļ‚ׂź‚Š„ė„ó„…†#†0†8†D†L†V†_†j†s†w†Œ†—†śöźöćśöÜöÜöŠĀöÜöÜö¼ö·öÜöÜö²öÜöÜöŖ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”ŖöŖ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”Ŗ”ŖhoF¼>*CJaJhoF¼CJaJ hoF¼6 hoF¼] hoF¼0J hoF¼CJOJPJQJaJhoF¼CJOJQJaJ hoF¼6] hoF¼>*\hoF¼OJPJQJ^JhoF¼ hoF¼5?:zžzīz<{Z{ |ˆ|L}?~Ē~wńl€m€n€Ž€č€é€ź€śķąąÓĘ¹¬¬¬¬¬§§§§””$Ifdą „Š„0żdpž^„Š`„0ż „¼„0żdpž^„¼`„0ż „v„Šżdpž^„v`„Šż !„„äżdpž^„`„äż „°„dpž^„°`„ „°„d^„°`„dź€õ€ž€ %9·±·±±±±$IfG$EʀÄņ–†If9:EFGH8//// dh$IfĘkd$$If–+ÖֈÕ’\ ”&Ē»$‡ ’’’’8’’’’’ģ’’’’’’’’µ’’’’’’’’ō’’’’’’’’ tąÖ0’’’’’’ö6ööÖ’’’’’’Ö’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’Ö’’’’’’Ö’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’4Ö4Ö +aöHIJKacöö/ööĘkdc$$If–+ÖֈÕ’\ ”&Ē»$‡ ’’’’’’’’’’’’8’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’ģ’’’’’’’’’’’’µ’’’’’’’’’’’’ō’’’’’’’’’’’’ tąÖ0’’’’’’ö6ööÖ’’’’’’Ö’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’Ö’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’Ö’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’4Ö4Ö +aö dh$Ifcghijköööö/Ękdr$$If–+ÖֈÕ’\ ”&Ē»$‡ ’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’8’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’ģ’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’µ’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’ō’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’ 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